Evelyn Waugh

Physics Major

Sagan was one of the most prominent scientists of the 80’s and 90’s. His passion for astronomy and was equally matched by his passion for humanity. He lived his life with the goal of creating something meaningful, and is often aptly referred to as the “astronomer for the people.” He articulated great love for all of the life in our universe. Through his writing, he sought to break down the wall between scientific community’s jargon and the non-STEM citizens of the world, helping to ensure scientific literacy would be bestowed upon the masses, not just lie in the hands of a few powerful majority members. He believed in human beings’ capacity for rationality and objectivity, but also recognized our natural tendency to act selfishly, in our own self-interest.

For this reason, Sagan was also an avid skeptic. His commitment to and enthusiasm for the scientific method of thinking is present in all of his work, and is particularly abundant in “The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.” In this piquant philosophical work exploring the importance of skepticism in all realms of life, Sagan explains how scientists have trained themselves to deal with the natural human propensity to see the world through the lense of one’s own beliefs. He explores skepticism as a method of not fooling oneself. In one chapter, “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection,” Sagan reflects on the many types of fraud we are faced with each day, and offers a set of tools for decoding the constant rhetoric and outright bullshit we encounter every day.

The purpose of the kit is to empower one to employ reason through constructing and deconstructing arguments, as well as recognizing fallacies in arguments. There are a total of 29 do’s and don’t listed in the kit. For the sake of brevity, below are selected highlights from the kit (all pulled directly from the aforementioned book).

First, some rules of thumb:

      1. “Wherever possible, there must be independent confirmation of the ‘facts.’

      2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents              of all points of view.

       3. Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made                    mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way              to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

        4. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only              a way station in the pursuit of knowledge.

         5. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified.                       Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider               the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary                   particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never                 acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of                   disproof?”

These rules of thumb help one achieve a logical stance on an issue or concept. Sagan moves on to some do not’s of rhetoric, perhaps even more valuable for breaking down a fallacious arguments than the former. These are to be avoided at all costs:

      1. “ad hominem — Latin for “to the man,” attacking the arguer and not the                         argument.” A contemporary example: There is no point in listening to                           Susan’s pleas against big agribusiness, she’s only a conspiracy theorist.

2. “argument from adverse consequences” also known as argumentum ad consequentiam, this logical fallacy concludes that an argument is true or false simply because the consequences of it being true or false are good or bad. A contemporary example: Trump’s draconian, racist claims that we must force Mexico to pay for a wall and deport 11 million people living in the United States, or we will encourage more illegals to enter and rape and poverty will reap ruin America.
3. “Appeal to ignorance — the claim that whatever has not been proved false must be true, and vice versa.” In other words, one using this logical fallacy asserts that because something has not been disproven, it is true. A contemporary example: Scientists have not proven vaccines do not cause autism, therefore they must.
4. Inconsistency in arguments. Contemporary examples include: Insisting upon labeling ‘inorganic’ foods so that one has the option of eating “chemical free,” while overlooking the use of approved organic pesticides such as coppers. Or, a divorced person claiming that gay marriage is immoral because it destroys the sanctity of marriage. Or, one from Sagan: “Consider it reasonable for the Universe to continue to exist forever into the future, but judge absurd the possibility that it has infinite duration into the past.”
5. “Slippery slope.” The slippery slope fallacy states that if one thing happens, through a series of event, another drastic, unrelated thing will happen.. For example: If a teenager smokes marijuana, soon he will have be homeless and using hard drugs. Or, If you ban the confederate flag symbol from schools, soon it will become illegal to proudly exhibit one’s culture at all.
6. “Straw man — caricaturing a position to make it easier to attack.” The use of this fallacy is very common. An example from Sagan: “Scientists suppose that living things simply fell together by chance — a formulation that willfully ignores the central Darwinian insight, that Nature ratchets up by saving what works and discarding what doesn’t.”

This fortification may prove vital in a time of constant bombardment of politicians seeking to instill a distrust of climate science, of consumerist marketing which often depends upon buyers who are passive in questioning products and quick to accept fraudulent claims, and fear mongering science deniers instilling a fear of everything from agriculture, to vaccination, to wireless internet. Credulous acceptance of baloney could mean a citizen voting for a corporate shill, a buyer wasting their time and money, or lack of progress of a society. When we the body and government of a society are scientifically illiterate and systematically misinformed, the results can be catastrophic. Recognizing paralogisms, then, is more than just an intellectual exercise: it’s our best bet for national security, and more importantly, the security of our survival as a species.

Humans may be wired to believe whatever is satisfying and comforting, but one can opt out of comforting delusions and instead learn to follow the trail of evidence, wherever it may lead, with the virtue of impartiality. Seek willingness to change one’s worldview to fit reality, rather than distorting reality to fit one’s worldview. To quote Sagan once more, “It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.” For more of the “Baloney Detection Kit” and other parcels of reason, check out Carl Sagan’s “The Demon-Haunted World,” and all of his other superlative works, including the original televised Cosmos series.